Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute , an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. Chris also edits the blog Mystics and Statistics and is the author of the book “War by Numbers”.
Merle is one of the co-founders of Connections Online.
Abstract
Despite its relative obscurity, the Peninsular battle of Albuera (1811) has been a frequent topic for Napoleonic military historians. William Napier’s criticisms of Beresford’s performance in his 1828 history of the Peninsular War gave rise to a famous pamphlet war which led many of the Allied commanders to justify their command decisions. At the turn of the 20th century Oman and Fortescue left detailed descriptions of the course of the battle in their multi-volume histories, reinforced with accurate orders of battle down to battalion level. Around the same time Aristide Martinien trawled the French archives for details of the fate of every French officer at the battle. The growing interest in military history in the last century encouraged publication of a number of popular monographs on Albuera, and two key actions in the battle were subjected to intense analysis in BP Hughes’s tactical study, Firepower. More generally, the way Napoleonic battles were fought at a tactical level has spawned multiple volumes. Interest in the period has not waned. Martinien’s archival work has recently provided the foundation for an extraordinary exploration of casualty causation by Spanish scholars Jorge Planas Campos and Antonio Grajal de Blas. And in 2023 Guy Dempsey, the leading current authority on Albuera, published a volume containing every extant contemporary source.
Despite this wealth of material, many interesting and important questions about the battle remain unanswered. This presentation argues that we now have the data to create and test hypotheses on weapon and force effectiveness across the period, identifying outliers and areas for deeper analysis. It further contends that some commercial wargames contain models of sufficient quality to enhance this approach. It sets out methods for assessing the simulation value of a game’s model, and provides a worked example of the insights we can glean from the combination of narrative and tactical history, data, analysis and modelling. The focus is on the desperate action on Albuera’s western flank which decided the battle, a self-contained brigade on brigade action where we know the forces at the start of the fight, the duration of the combat, and the wounds inflicted and casualties suffered.
The presentation demonstrates that this approach adds to our understanding of the command decisions, tactical results and morale contest which decided the battle. It concludes with some general thoughts on the use of wargames in historical analysis.
This presentation will explore the strategic use of Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) in wargaming to model real-world military forces and scenarios. This presentation delves into how OSINT can be applied to simulate contingencies like the South China Sea, offering practical insights into using publicly available data to create realistic, dynamic wargames for defence and industry.
With 40 years of military experience, including leading Australia’s Defence Forces’ adversary wargaming capability, Duncan specialises in crafting unclassified strategic and tactical scenarios. Now transitioning to industry, Duncan leverages Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) to model real-world contingencies, offering expert insights into wargaming and defence analysis.
As urban conflict authors such as Alice Hills, David Kilcullen, Stephen Graham, Mary Kaldor and Saskia Sassen have repeatedly pointed out, modern urban conflict involves innocent civilians. But to what extent are innocent civilians represented in our urban wargames? As part of my PhD on Wargaming Urban Conflict I have begun to examine this representation (or lack of it). A first step has been to develop a candidate typology for the representation of civilians in wargames, and I am now testing this typology against a range of different wargames in order to refine or reject it as a hypothesis. This presentation will introduce this initial typology and present and discuss some of my initial research into its validity and identify some initial areas of enhancement and consider the actions that potentially arise from its analysis.
David is currently completing a PhD at Bath Spa University.
Professional wargames serve as critical tools for exploring complex real-world scenarios, making it essential that their design is rooted in models that can be validated and scrutinized However, design philosophies from commercial wargaming, driven primarily by the goal of player enjoyment, have heavily influenced the professional wargaming community. While commercial methodologies prioritize engagement, they often lack the rigor needed for creating representative and externally valid professional wargames. This presentation introduces a structured design methodology tailored to professional wargaming, focusing on expaning external validity and ensuring that the underlying model is representative of the topic it covers. Attendees will gain an understanding of how to distinguish the professional wargame design methodology from its commercial counterpart and how to apply best practices to create wargames that meet a higher professional standard.
Josh Kovan is the instructional wargaming fellow at the U.S. Army War College and a non-resident fellow at the Irregular Warfare Initiative.
Evan D’Alessandro is a PhD student at King’s College London studying Immersion in Professional Wargaming and a professional wargaming consultant for a number of European defence agencies.
A wargame developed for : Canadian Joint Task Force Atlantic HQ, Royal Canadian Navy, Canadian Coastguard, US 2nd Fleet, US Coastguard at an operational joint level.
The presentation will talk about the design features, some interesting mechanics and how the event was undertaken.
David is the Senior Wargames Designer for the Canadian Joint Warfare Centre.
Wargaming the Information Environment and Integrated Operations in Support of AUKUS: We will be presenting an overview of Information Operations and Influence followed by a discussion of the Information Environment and some of the Information warfare capabilities that are enabled by it. We will then detail Wargaming considerations for AUKUS, including specific use cases and outline challenges that we have encountered when Wargaming Information Operations – including a summary of a recent Wargame we facilitated as part of the Global Information Conference – Phoenix Challenge which was conducted in Australia earlier this year. Finally, we will discuss how technology can be utilised to enable IO Wargaming efforts at scale to address some typical wargaming challenges.
Amy is the CEO and Co-Founder of Cygence, a boutique cyber security consultancy. She has 20+ years of management/cyber consulting experience leading cyber, business transformation and consulting teams across Australia, New Zealand and Internationally. Amy has a broad security skill set with expertise across threat intelligence and emulation, vulnerability assessments, cyber security strategy, risk, and governance. Amy is an authentic and highly motivated individual, with a great passion to drive impact across the cyber security industry. She is leading the development of applications for gamification of cyber security, national security influence operations and Defence wargaming. Amy is a recognised Australian female leader and mentor in cyber security and Defence. Amy led and managed the first ever multi-national Australian Team of 160 personnel in the main exercise for Locked Shields in 2024.
This presentation will discuss the application of analytical wargaming to force design and other Defence decision support activities.
Andrew is the Group Leader of The Defence Science and Technology Group Analytical Wargaming Team.
Dr Trish Lavery is an academic and policy expert working with the School of Cybernetics, Australian National University and in the central strategy team of the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet. As former OECD Strategic Foresight Counsellor and Senior Strategic Analyst, Trish has experience in applying futures, foresight and behavioural economics to help facilitate better executive and board decision making, more resilient long-term public policy and more effective corporate strategy. Trish lectures on geostrategic communications at the Sympodium Institute, is a member of the OECD AI Futures Expert Working Group, and is an active contributor to a number of current research projects, on topics including mis- and disinformation, geoengineering and neurotechnology. She is passionate about putting a deeper understanding of human behaviour into the centre of discussions on emerging technologies and trends.
This presentation will cover a quick update on the Reinvigoration of Wargaming in the Australian Army. This includes the Australian Platoon Commander wargame and the new Littoral Commander Australia ADF expansion for Littoral Commander Indo Pacific.
Andrew Somerville is a serving officer in the Australian Army. For the past few years he has been leading efforts to expand the use of wargaming in the Army.
Clint is an Australian wargame designer with credits such as: One Hour WW2; Werwolf: Insurgency in Occupied Germany, 1945-48; and Gallipoli: Ordered to Die.
This presentation describes wargame research on the generation and use of cyber forces in a conflict scenario
Jason Vogt is an assistant professor at the United States Naval War College’s Cyber & Innovation Policy Institute. Vogt is a cyber wargaming expert and has participated in the development of multiple wargames at the United States Naval War College. He previously worked for the Defense Intelligence Agency and served on active duty as an Army officer.
This presentation describes wargame research to improve resilience of information and communications technology in the event of conflict with the PRC.
Dr Nina Kollars is an associate professor at the United States Naval War College’s Cyber & Innovation Policy Institute. Kollars formerly served as the advisor to the Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering, the Honorable Heidi Shyu. Her primary areas of research are in emerging technologies, cybersecurity, and military innovation.
The ACSS is a national student run and led volunteer organisation headquartered at the ANU. We specialise in complex future-based and alternative crisis simulations in a national effort to help create the next generation of national security experts and leaders. We pursue a multidisciplinary approach to our crisis simulations by creating a space for unheard voices in the security field to create crisis simulations through alternative lenses or by enabling those from typically non-security fields to participate as delegates.
This presentation will describe the roll of scenarios in exploring complex geo-political problems.
Peter and Ella were lead writers for the 2024 event and will be the leaders of the team for 2025.
Crisis management in the Australian banking sector is crucial for safeguarding financial stability and ensuring public confidence. The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), along with other financial institutions, places a strong emphasis on robust crisis preparation, frequently conducting simulations and exercises designed to respond to various threat scenarios, from cyber incidents to operational disruptions.
As a leader in crisis management, CBA conducts simulations covering data breaches, system failures, and physical threats to evaluate response capabilities and inter-agency collaboration. Initiatives across the sector help the banking industry maintain resilience, minimize risks, and protect both customers and the broader economy from potential disruptions.
Victoria Birch is a Crisis Management Specialist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia and a dedicated professional in the cybersecurity field. Her passions centre on building resilience and advancing cyber knowledge through a blend of technical expertise and strong community engagement. Victoria’s work has been featured in Careers with STEM magazine, where she shared insights on cybersecurity pathways, as well as in her role as a Village Host at BSides Adelaide 2024.
With experience across crisis management, cyber intelligence, and programming, Victoria brings a practical perspective to her work, consistently focusing on collaboration and community. She is passionate about sharing knowledge and encouraging others, making her an active and valued presence in the security community.